1 VESSEL TRAFFIC
CHARACTERISTICS
Operational factors
1.1 Fishing
vessels, local trade vessels, local sailing canoes, tourist and recreational craft
can be encountered anywhere in the Jomard Entrance area.
1.2 There are
currently no existing activities or foreseeable developments of offshore exploration
or exploitation of the seabed. Nautilus Mining previously held Exploration Licence
Tenements in the Solomon Sea, however these lapsed. Similarly, there are no offshore
structures other than those used to provide aids to navigation in the region.
Vessel types
1.3 There is a wide variety of vessels
operating in this area, including large bulk carriers, timber carriers, LNG, oil and
chemical tankers, passenger ships, cruise liners and third generation container
ships.
1.4 Since July 2014, LNG has become one of the primary commodities
exported by PNG. It is predicted that around 110 LNG ships will call at PNG ports
each year for the first three years, with this number forecast to double by 2020.
All LNG ships will use Jomard Entrance as their primary route to/from Japan, which
is contracted to import around 85% of PNG's LNG. There is a second LNG project
within PNG that will likely be developed in the near future.
1.5 Papua New
Guinea (PNG) is experiencing significant growth in marine tourism. Cruise industry
sources reveal that up to 100 ship calls per annum are expected each year for the
next five years, following which a further growth of 34% is estimated for the next
five years.
Traffic characteristics
1.6 PNG is experiencing a
marked increase in the volume of international ship traffic passing through its
waters. It is estimated that some 9,200 ships transited its waters in 2013. Many
ships in ballast drift near the southern approaches to Jomard Entrance awaiting
their turn to load at Australian ports. Some 90% of the ships carrying commodities
exported by Australia's eastern coast ports to north Asian markets (including China,
Japan and the Republic of Korea) use this most direct route through PNG's waters.
1.7 Over the last decade and a half, commodity exports have been a key driver
of economic activity in Australia, driven by strong growth in demand from emerging
economies in Asia. Substantial resource exports (mainly coal and Liquefied Natural
Gas (LNG)) from Australian ports have contributed to increased traffic through PNG's
waters. This trend is predicted to continue for some time to come.
1.8 Coal
exports from the state of Queensland in Australia will be the biggest driver of
increased shipping through Jomard Entrance, through which northbound ships loaded
with coal from the ports of Hay Point, Abbot Point and Gladstone will traverse. The
coal port of Newcastle on the central coast of New South Wales also contributes to
the significant traffic through Jomard Entrance.
1.9 As an example, the number
of ships calling at the Australian coal exporting port of Abbot Point each year is
forecast to grow from 172 (in 2012) to 1,640 (in 2032) – almost a tenfold increase.
Likewise, annual traffic from Hay Point in central Queensland is forecast to grow
from 809 ships to 2,380 ships in the same period.
1.10 Concurrently, strong
growth in PNG's mining and resource sectors has led to it becoming one of the
world's fastest growing economies. As noted above, a variety of ship types transit
PNG's pristine and reef-littered waters, the majority along well-used routes, see
figure 1.
Figure 1 – Shipping traffic patterns in and around PNG
waters
1.11 Taking into account the current and project levels of
international shipping traffic, a risk assessment conducted using the IALA Waterways
Risk Assessment Program Mk2 in February 2013 found that the introduction of a
two-way route could reduce the frequency of potential collisions from the one every
seven years to one every 14 years – a reduction of 50% in the number of potential
collisions.
Harmful substances carried
1.12 Vessels transiting
Jomard Entrance are primarily bulk carriers, however there are also significant
numbers of oil, chemical/products and LNG tankers.
2 NATURAL FACTORS
Hydrographical
2.1 Hydrographic surveys in the immediate
area of the Two-way routes are to Zone of Confidence (ZOC) B. These surveys confirm
existing charted depths and depiction of reef edges and are to be incorporated in a
new 1:75,000 large scale chart in 2014 – 15. Areas outside the limits of these
surveys are to ZOC C. Notably, the reefs defining Jomard Entrance are fronted by
deep water which considerably exceeds the maximum draught of any surface vessel
which could conceivably use the route.
2.2 It is worth noting that through
extensive use by commercial shipping over an extended period of time, bathymetric
surveys in the region of the Two-way route have been proven as adequate for safe
navigation.
2.3 Electronic Navigation Chart (ENC) coverage of the area is
provided as ENC AU412152, Edition 2, at a nominal scale of 1:90,000. This was
updated to include larger scale coverage to the limits shown in Chartlet 1 (see
annex 4) prior to the establishment of the Two-way route. Smaller scale approach
coverage of the Coral and Solomon Seas is provided by AU220150 Edition 3.
Additionally, smaller scale ENC are also available for planning. All ENC are metric
and referenced to WGS84 and Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT).
2.4 Paper chart
coverage of Jomard Entrance is available in a new chart at a scale of 1:75,000 with
limits and extent as shown in Chartlet 1 in annex 4. The entrance is also depicted
on existing smaller scale charts, ranging from 1:150,000 for navigation and at
smaller scales for planning. All charts are metric and referenced to WGS84 and LAT.
Meteorological
2.5 The Jomard Passage is in a tropical
cyclone prone zone. Though cyclone frequency is expected to decrease with climate
change projections, the severity is expected to increase when they do occur. The
main shipping routes are heavily exposed to prevailing south-east trade winds, which
have a fetch of hundreds of nautical miles.
Oceanographic
2.6
Previous research has shown evidence of surface and deep boundary currents flowing
around the southern end of the Louisiade Archipelago, with leakage of surface water
from the Coral Sea through the Louisiade Archipelago.
3 OTHER INFORMATION
History of groundings, collisions or spills
Groundings
3.1 Chart Aus 510 shows four wrecks (visible at chart datum) on the
immediate reefs in and around Jomard Entrance. In the early 2000s, several
longliners ran aground in the Jomard and Bramble Haven area, with three running
aground in 2000. In 2006, a bulk carrier grounded on Long Reef near Jomard Entrance,
spilling oil and raw sugar. In 2011, the total loss of engine power by a container
ship in the same area led to the Royal Australian Navy providing assistance by way
of a patrol boat (which happened to be on exercise in PNG at the time). A tow line
attached to the stricken ship prevented it from grounding on nearby reefs and
potentially causing reef damage and pollution of the area.
Marine Debris
3.2 A marine debris survey conducted in 2012 on four islands within the
PSSA – Jomard, Panarairai, Punawan and Siva – reported that marine debris is
accumulating in significant amounts on these islands (Raaymakers et al., 2012).
While further work would be needed to establish with any certainty the proportion of
debris contributed by shipping, it is hoped that the revised MARPOL Annex V, which
entered into force on 1 January 2013, will result in a reduction in marine debris
from shipping within the PSSA.
Intervention and response
3.3
The length and remoteness of PNG's coastline poses major challenges to any response
to an accident and containing any resulting pollution. These challenges are also
compounded due to limited response capabilities in the region. As noted above, the
main shipping routes are heavily exposed to prevailing south-east trade winds. A
casualty in such circumstances will make any salvage and recovery task challenging.
The closest tugs and oil spill response equipment are located at Port Moresby, which
is approximately 330 nautical miles away. Therefore, it is vital to avoid incidents
in the region.